한국의 핵무장 추진 시 국제 규범 위반 문제와 현실적인 핵 억제력 강화 방안

Responding to North Korea’s increasing nuclear threat, public opinion in favor of nuclear option has been heightened in South Korea. In this paper, it will be discussed what kind of sanction measures the international community will impose on South Korea if it withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT) and decides to develop nuclear weapons. Also it will be considered how South Korea will get extended nuclear deterrence fully from the United States, which is South Korea’s strong ally with nuclear weapons, instead of developing its own nuclear weapons to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat. On April 26, 2023, the ‘Washington Declaration’ was announced at the US-ROK Summit in which both countries agreed to strengthen extended nuclear deterrence through the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), and South Korea reaffirmed its commitment to obligations of the NPT. By the joint ‘Washington Declaration’, it appears that issues relating to South Korea’s nuclear development has submerged under the water. However, It is noteworthy to assume that South Korea will meet severe consequence if it will pursue developing nuclear weapons in the future. South Korea will be under sanction from the UN Security Council, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and relevant international organizations since it will violate various international norms including the NPT. In addition, the US and ma- jor power countries in the world will impose bilateral sanctions on South Korea. By those sanctions, South Korean economy which depends on international trade will be crippled, and electricity infrastructure will not be able to run normally since import of nuclear fuel material which is main resource for nuclear power plant will be restricted. Under the circumstance, South Korea’s realistic options such as strengthening extended nuclear deterrence, re-deployment of US tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear sharing and purchase of nuclear submarine can be considered within the NPT system to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat. When we review pros and cons of those options and consistent US nuclear policy, upgrading extended nuclear deterrence based on the US-ROK mutual defence treaty seems to be realistically best option as it can ensure rapid deployment of the US strategic assets such as nuclear submarine, B-1B bomber and aircraft carriers in crisis situation. Core issue is how South Korea as a non-nuclear NPT state will prepare immediate counter capability with the US nuclear deterrence to respond swiftly to any sign of North Korea’s provocation or possible North Korea’s nuclear attack on South Korea. At the same time, it is also important to make diplomatic efforts together with the US, China and other countries concerned in order to induce North Korea for nuclear negotiation while strengthening South Korea’s national defense power together with the US extended nuclear deterrence through the NCG mechanism which was agreed at the US-ROK Summit in April 2023.