AUKUS는 순항할 것인가?: AUKUS 순항의 위협 요인

This paper examines the viability of the AUKUS security partnership, involving the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, in successfully progressing towards its enduring objective of furnishing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines without encountering substantial disruptions. Emphasizing two pivotal factors that have the potential to impede AUKUS in achieving its goal, this study addresses a structural consideration—the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China strategic competition—and domestic political dynamics within member states, specifically the United States and Australia. The former has pledged to provide advanced military technology, particularly nuclear propulsion technology, while the latter is committed to an extensive government spending plan totaling approximately A$386 billion over a 30-year period. The contention advanced in this study posits that the predominant structural force shaping AUKUS—the U.S.-China rivalry—could, if mitigated, introduce centrifugal forces that may undermine the partnership’s cohesion. Furthermore, the extended timeline of over 30 years for the AUKUS project raises concerns about time-inconsistency problems, exacerbated by the potential for (anticipated) domestic political changes, particularly in the U.S. and Australia.