HALEU 시장 전망과 미국 HALEU 생산의 주요 기술 과제

This paper provides an analysis of the demand and supply outlook for High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) ― a critical requirement for the commercialization of advanced reactors ― and examines the status of production technologies with a focus on the United States. HALEU demand is projected to reach several hundred metric tons annually around 2030; however, current commercial-scale production capacity remains heavily concentrated in Russia. In response, the United States, Europe, and China are accelerating efforts to build independent HALEU production infrastructure and advance multilateral cooperation to restructure the supply chain. In particular, the United States has made tangible progress in securing production capacity through the operation of a demonstration centrifuge cascade for HALEU enrichment and by pursuing downblending of high-enriched uranium (HEU). Commercial centrifuge technology poses no fundamental technical barrier to HALEU production, but higher enrichment levels introduce regulatory and technical challenges, including the need to ensure criticality safety, enhance physical protection and safeguards, and optimize multi-stage cascade configurations. HEU downblending provides a valuable short-term supply option, yet entails additional burdens related to radiation management, impurity control, and waste handling. Nevertheless, these challenges appear manageable within the scope of existing enrichment and reprocessing technologies and accumulated operational experience. Ultimately, the success of HALEU supply chain development will depend less on technological feasibility than on the maturity of underlying market and policy conditions, such as the timing of demand realization, economic viability, government support, and private-sector investment. For Korea, existing restrictions on uranium enrichment and reprocessing make stable access to HALEU inherently difficult. However, given that HALEU availability will directly shape competitiveness in the global advanced reactor market, it is essential for Korea to continuously monitor major-country developments and establish appropriate HALEU procurement and cooperation models, along with strengthened fuel-cycle capabilities.